In its quarterly report on global poultry markets, Rabobank notes a spike in prices during the first half of 2025, driven by uncertainty about US import tariffs, bird flu outbreaks in major producers—Brazil, the European Union, and the United States—, and conflicts in the Middle East.
These factors could have a significant impact on poultry global trade and market dynamics, and will remain dominant themes for the outlook for the second half of the year. While the forecast is promising thanks to high beef and egg prices and stable feed prices, geopolitical tensions and an uncertain economic outlook threaten to limit growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its global GDP growth forecast by 0.5%, and oil prices are rising. These factors, combined with avian flu outbreaks, are impacting international markets negatively, leading Rabobank to lower its global production forecast to a growth rate of 2 to 2.5%.
The report also highlights that after the US imposed and postponed import tariffs, the risk of a trade war remains. If trade deals are reached, the US poultry sector could gain greater market access, potentially at the expense of other producers. On the other hand, an ongoing trade war could favor other exporters such as Brazil, Thailand, Russia, and the EU, but it could cause inflationary repercussions in vulnerable regions like Asia and Africa.
Furthermore, the bird flu outbreak in Brazil has had a significant impact, blocking 40% of its exports to key importers. The trade of hatching eggs has also been impacted by outbreaks in various regions, posing a challenge for countries that depend on imports, especially in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Supply is expected to stay tight in the coming months, impacting the stability and growth of the global poultry trade.
