Estimates by the Dutch financial institution Rabobank foresee that the number of hogs in China will keep declining this year, and that the country will still rely on imports. Although the local industry is recovering, global production of pork related products could drop by 8%.
According to Rabobank’s figures, global pork production this year could fall up to 8% due to the losses caused by the African swine fever (ASF) in various Asian countries, particularly China.
The forecasts for Chinese pork farming suggest that production could decline by an additional 15% to 20% by the end of 2020 because of ASF.
Christine McCracken, Executive Director of Animal Protein at Rabobank, explained that given rapid changes in the market because of ASF and Covid-19 (coronavirus), the pork industry must be able to react quickly to these scenarios or “it may not survive.”
McCracken went on to say that for the United States, this means reassuring consumers that supply will continue, whether through supermarkets or even online platforms, and guarantying they will be able to keep buying pork protein at affordable prices.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE WILL REMAIN KEY FOR THE PORK INDUSTRY
According to Rabobank’s internal figures, the US is currently the main pork supplier for China, which is now importing the equivalent of 10% of its pork processing.
During Iowa Swine Day Webinar Series, McCracken explained that despite the above, the Asian country has made great progress in recovering its pork industry, thanks to significant investments in biosecurity by large production units, thus moving away from the backyard farm scheme.
Although China should maintain its pork imports to stabilize its local market, there is no guarantee that its doors will remain open for the US, mainly because of the political tensions between both countries. However, in the coming years international trade is expected to play an important role in the industry worldwide.
Source: Porcicultura (Sectorial news website)[:]