Recently, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its regular report (Livestock and Poultry World Markets and Trade) sharing some forecasts on global pork and poultry production and export growth for 2021. The document places special emphasis on the situation in Brazil. Specifically, it estimates that Brazil’s total meat exports will increase by 5% in comparison to 2020, marking the tenth consecutive year of growth. Thus, Brazil is expected to capture 23% of global meat exports.
Brazil’s share of global beef exports has increased more than any other country in recent years, rising to an estimated 25% in 2021. The country’s beef exports surged following the emergence of African swine fever (ASF) in China in 2018 and continued to grow last year despite a global recession and a downturn in the foodservice business. In turn, recovering demand in the European Union and the Middle East, as well as continued strength in China, position Brazil as a robust country with further export growth this year.
Meanwhile, the South American country’s share of global pork exports has increased steadily in recent years and is forecast to reach 11% in 2021. Compared to exports of other meats, pork exports are relatively small, but production has been increasing for export channels. It is estimated that pork exports in 2021 will increase by 73%, even higher than before ASF hit China in 2018.
On the other hand, Brazil’s share of global chicken exports has remained relatively constant. While Brazilian chicken exports have indeed gone up since 2018, exports from other smaller suppliers, such as Thailand and Russia, have grown at a greater rate.
Global pork production
Global pork production is forecast to increase by 5% in 2021 to 101.5 million tons as China and Vietnam recover from the impacts of ASF.
Additionally, improving economic conditions and continued export opportunities will support output growth for most major pork producers. Although China’s production is expected to remain 25% below pre-ASF levels, it is nevertheless forecast to increase by 11% in comparison to 2020. According to official U.S. government statistics, hog inventories grew rapidly in 2020; however, low productivity and continued disease challenges are expected to constrain production this year. High feed prices are also likely to put pressure on China’s carcass weights and limit output growth.
Pork production in Vietnam is forecast to increase by 5% year-over-year. With ASF mostly under control, high prices have incentivized investment and led to breeding herd recovery. Meanwhile, pork production in the Philippines is expected to decline by 10% as ASF continues to constrain productivity.
Global poultry production
Global poultry production is forecast to increase by 1% in 2021, to a record 102.1 million tons.
The economic recovery projected for this sector will drive modest demand growth, outweighing rising feed prices. Among major producers, China will grow most rapidly, although at a slower rate than in prior years. Global and domestic demand will drive Brazil’s production while domestic consumption will support increased production in the European Union and India. However, U.S. production will remain close to 2020 levels.
Source: Carnica News